Perrin: Grab your salt
- Details
- Published on Thursday, May 2, 2013
By: Steven Perrin
myWestman.ca
Last week Statistics Canada released its first estimates of what Canadian farmers intend to plant in 2013.
These seeding intentions numbers are based on a survey of 14,000 farmers conducted for five days in late March. Surveys like this must always be taken with salt, but this one in particular provides a good example of the limitations of seeding predictions.
The late-March conduction and late-April release of the survey formed the two pieces of bread in a terrible weather sandwich. Our bummer of an April is likely to have changed many farmers' seeding intentions since the survey took place. This is not to say the report lacks value.
We now have a much better idea of farmers' mindsets coming into this season. If we accept that certain predictions will be inaccurate because of the limitations the weather has imposed on us, we can use these numbers, along with the latest developments with the weather, to paint a clearer picture of the seeding that will actually take place.
So, the report's spring and durum wheat estimates came in substantially higher than expected, while canola came in lower. But that was late March when wheat prices were a bit stronger and farmers had more optimism for their longer-season crops. Given the weather, we're likely to see wheat plantings drop and canola plantings increase.
Flax estimates came in rather high compared to previous years, but risk going higher amid some strong prices of late and its later seeding options. To reflect a shorter growing season, both canaryseed and lentils are also expected to increase over StatsCan's estimates.
Summerfallow was reported at a record low but may increase if the weather refuses to co-operate and farmers are forced to abandon some of their seeding plans.
This particular report carries less weight than certain United States Department of Agriculture seeding intentions reports, especially for the larger crops. But with its focus on Canada and on some of the niche crops Canadian farmers specialize in and export — lentils, peas, canaryseed — the StatsCan report is nevertheless an important indicator of the year to come, regardless of limitations imposed by the weather.
What we choose to grow, or not grow, has reverberations around the world. We now have a better idea of the 2013 crop, but be prepared for significant adjustments to this year's predictions. And keep an eye on the weather!
